Last September, soon after my "Pope Names" book came out, I was asked to comment on possible names for the next pope -- and I did so. That list is still good. But since then, as some of you know, I went ahead and stuck my neck out and came up with MY papabili list for 2009. Given that a pope elect chooses an assumed name, per his unique prerogative, based on his personal circumstances, I realize that I must now refine my list based on the currently identified papabili.
This is meant to be, and in reality has to be, an 'organic' post. For one, the papabili list, hence why I dated it, will change over time. I believe (and I could be wrong) that we are due for another consistory. If we get one I will have to go back and reexamine my list in light of the new cardinals (since I do believe that the next pope will be elected from among the cardinal electors -- who are under the age of 75). Since trying to guess what name a given papabile might pick is based purely on conjecture, I realize that I will have to refine my thoughts as I encounter more 'data points' -- which I tend to do on daily basis. So those are the caveats. That all said, here we go ...
BENEDICT XVII is a long shot
Benedict XVII is always a possibility. Over the duration of the 266 popes, we have had 13 instances of consecutive name use, John Paul I & II and Pius XI & XII being the last two instances.
Cardinal Scherer, in particular, has multiple reasons for picking that name -- if he so wishes. Benedict XVI, in addition to creating him a cardinal, has favored him with some lavish appointments. Their relationship, indubitably close, goes back to the mid-1990s. Plus, Cardinal Scherer has Germanic roots. Cardinal Marc Ouellet has also had a close relationship with the current pope -- again going back to the 1990s.
That said I do not believe (and I could be wrong), based on the current 'climate,' that the next pope, whoever he may be, is going to reuse the name 'Benedict.' But that could change over time. At present, I am going to let current world news speak to this point. I do not need to get into the details. Lets just say that in the context of modern papacies, this current one has experienced more turbulence than most.
Unlikely to be two German popes in a row
I have heard that some Germans are upset that my papabili list does not contain any German papabili! I never thought I would have to explain this omission. WOW. It has nothing, whatsoever, to do with politics, patriotism, ideology or any other beliefs. It has all to do with 'spreading the wealth' so to speak -- to use a term that got overused towards the end of the last US Presidential election. The current set of cardinal electors represent 52 countries. Many, in particular the Latin American countries, have never had a pope. So ... Come on. Be realistic. The chances of another German pope is unlikely. It could happen. But it is unlikely. I also don't think the next pope will be from Poland or for that matter the USA. OK?
JOHN XXIV is a great fit
Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, from Portuguese-speaking Brazil, could make a lot of people very happy and gain a ton of friends if he decides to assume the name 'John' -- if elected. John XXI [1276-1277], a physician and noted scholar (who among other things wrote a book about how to treat eye diseases), was Portuguese and was known as 'Pedro Hispano.' [Yes, he had an unfortunate death when an addition he had had hastily built to the Papal Palace in Viterbo (Italy), in the main to hold his books, crashed down upon him.]
'John,' moreover, would hark back to the beloved, Blessed John XXIII. And therein lies the rub!
A 'John XXIV' would indeed signify a bold, new outlook -- per that of the pope that convened Vatican II. But, Cardinal Scherer is probably the most 'conservative' of the papabili. So he might not feel comfortable with that name.
Leo XIV is another option
If so, he could opt for Leo XIV. Leo XIII [1878-1903], another intellectual, was also immensely popular. He convened the very first Plenary Council of Latin America in 1899 and was instrumental in abolishing slavery in Brazil. My friend, papal expert Byron Hoover, who helps me a lot when it comes to papal history suggests that we also add: "Considering that Leo XIII laid the foundation for the Church's teaching
on social and economic justice, the papal name Leo assumes even more
relevance for the next pope in light of the on-going global
financial crisis."
Byron has also repeatedly pointed out that he thinks that 'Leo' is long overdue to be reused. (I have a theory that some pope elects have been bashful to opt for 'Leo' since Leo XIII reigned for 25 years. Both Benedict XVI and John XXIII quipped that their namesakes have had short papacies. So, maybe, others may have been worried that picking 'Leo' might indicate that they are hoping for a long pontificate. Yes, that begs the question about the use of 'Pius,' after Pius IX's unprecedented 31 year papacy. All I can say here is that St. Pius X opted for that name, right after Leo XIII's reign, and categorically said he was doing so to pay tribute to the degradations stoically endured by Pius IX during the Italian unification struggle. That was heartfelt and I think was much appreciated by many. After that, Pius X became the one identified with that name ... until XI came along. )
I do not think that a non-Italian pope-elect will opt for 'Pius.' It is a name that has only been used by Italian popes (though there is no real basis for this). But this is now a part of papal 'lore.' I am also not sure whether even an Italian pope-elect will opt for 'Pius' right now. Though venerated, there is still lingering criticism from some groups about Pius XII's behavior during WW II.
Marcellus III would be appropriate
Marcello Cervini degli Spannochi, who became Marcellus II in 1555, was the last pope to retain his birth name.
No other 'Marks,' after the Roman god of war 'Mars,' have been elected pope since then.
But that would change if Cardinal Marc Ouellet is elected. I have never met the Cardinal, but in the photographs I have seen he has a je ne sais qoui glint in his eyes. He appears to have a sense of humor and appreciate irony. He could thus retain his birth name and do so, with panache, within the 'protocols.' Plus, with 'Marcellus,' he would signify that he has no pretensions of a long pontificate (though we do need the next pope to reign for a lengthy term, per my criteria for only picking papabili that are under the age of 75).
That is all for now. I will refine and extend this posting on a regular basis.
Many thanks for your time.
I long ago decided that if I were elected Pope I would select the name of Zosimus. . For a long time we had a string of "II" Popes but have not had one since Marcellus II, right? What is the most likely candidate for a "II" ? Mark? Cornelius?
Posted by: Dewie J. Gaul | November 28, 2009 at 07:02 AM
Despite Malachy's Prophecy which would have as the next pope Peter II, the next pope will be called Sixtus the Sixth, although I wouldn't altogether exclude the possibility of a Julius IV.
Posted by: Cumanus | June 12, 2009 at 08:35 AM